Well folks, that’s Week 11 in the books. With a few unexpected results, the Power Rankings underwent a helluva shake up. With the Playoffs nearing closer and closer, we’ll start taking a look at Playoff Probability. Probabilities come via the New York Times.
1.Eagles (0)
After being down 17-7 going into halftime, the Eagles stormed back and beat the Chiefs 21-17, hanging onto the title as the NFL’s best team. While Jalen Hurts didn’t look amazing (150 yards, one pick), he was able to keep Philly in the game and showed accuracy on the long 41 yard pass to Devonta Smith to set up a “Brotherly Shove” TD to take the lead. Not bad.
Make Playoffs: >99%
Win Division: 93%
First Round Bye: 71%
2. Ravens (+1)
Baltimore handles hated division rival Cincinnati in primetime. Don’t be fooled by the 34-20 score, this game wasn’t close. While the Ravens benefitted from Joe Burrow leaving the game at halftime, their offense was still clicking against Cincy’s defense before Burrow left. With Mark Andrews lost for the season due to a hip drop tackle by Logan Wilson, I fully expect underrated backup Isaiah Likely to step up and fill the role well. While Ravens fans (like myself) suffered a minor heart attack watching Lamar limp to the sidelines, he still appears to be in good health. Baltimore is nearly a lock for playoff contention
Make Playoffs: 96%
Win Division: 61%
First Round Bye: 16%
3. Niners (+2)
Someone should’ve told Tampa, if you’re going to San Francisco, to bring an army. Or wear flowers in your hair. Wait, they play in Santa Clara. In that case, bring your Cedar Fair Gold Passes? The Niners get another win, 27-14, over the Buccaneers. While the Niners look better, I can’t help but remember the 3 game losing streak. While it’s slowly fading, a team this dominant shouldn’t have lost 3 in a row. That being said, San Fran has won 2 in a row in dominant fashion. 61-17 isn’t bad whatsoever. You know what’s weird? The Niners are still San Francisco, even though Santa Clara is 45 miles away. For comparison, that’s like Lions fans driving clear to Toledo, Ohio for a game. Someone remind me, why couldn’t they just build at Candlestick?
Make Playoffs: 99%
Win Division: 94%
First Round Bye: 18%
4. Lions (0)
Whew, that was a close one Detroit. With 3 minutes left in the game, Chicago led the Lions 26-14 and looked to be cruising to a huge upset over their division rivals, but it wasn’t meant to be. The Lions managed two score two TDs, a two point conversion, and a safety to finish the comeback attempt, 31-26. I honestly don’t know whether to be impressed by the comeback, or worried the Lions were down by two scores to the Bears. Whatever, good win by the Motor City.
Make Playoffs: 99%
Win Division: 91%
First Round Bye: 15%
5. Chiefs (-3)
Yeesh, that was a poor showing by the reigning Super Bowl Champs. Kansas City had multiple opportunities to put away the Eagles in the rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, but couldn’t. Travis Kelce seemed to forget his hands at home, while Kadarious Toney and Marquez Valdez-Scantling just didn’t have any whatsoever. Over the past 3 games, Kansas City has been outscored 38-0 in the 4th quarter. How much does this team miss Tyreek Hill and the Legion of Zoom?
Make Playoffs: 98%
Win Division: 96%
First Round Bye: 39%
6. Dolphins (0)
I don’t know how to feel about this Dolphins win. While yes, they did technically beat a team without a losing record, it wasn’t a winning record either. Plus, beating a team like the Raiders 20-13 isn’t an impressive feat, but a win is a win. The Offense has slowed down as of late, but they continue to win games. Miami is currently the favorite to win the AFC East, but are still a ways away from getting a First Round Bye. As the running trend, Miami still has yet to beat a team without a winning record, but end their season facing 3; against the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills. We’ll check in with Miami later.
Make Playoffs: 97%
Win Division: 90%
First Round Bye: 15%
7. Cowboys (0)
This game wasn’t a contest. Anyone eyeing this game going into Sunday knew it was going to be a Cowboys win, but did anyone else expect a blowout? I thought Dallas would handle Carolina easily, but a 33-10 win was a bit disappointing. Although, DaRon Bland did tie the NFL Record for Most Pick-6’s in a season with 4. This is what confuses me about Dallas, they blowout the likes of the Giants and Rams, but only beat the worst team in the League by 23? This is no way a dig at Dallas, they’re a great team, but it remains confusing. Which Dallas will we see come playoff time?
Make Playoffs: 98%
Win Division: 12%
First Round Bye: 5%
8. Jaguars (0)
What a way to bounce back for Duval! After a drubbing from the Niners last week, Jacksonville used the reverse Uno card on Tennessee, winning 34-14. The Jaguars looked like an actual contender and are adding breathing room in the division between themselves and the sudden risers in Houston. While the Offense looked much better, will it stay consistent? Jacksonville can’t afford a game like that in the playoffs.
Make Playoffs: 89%
Win Division: 66%
First Round Bye: 6%
9. Browns (+3)
Big win for Cleveland over rival Pittsburgh. While a lot of folks counted them out after losing Deshaun Watson, Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson and company were able to pull off the upset and help their playoff chances. With 5 of their 7 wins coming within a Touchdown, including Sunday’s 13-10 win, the “Cardiac Kids” of the early 80’s are suddenly reincarnated. While that team’s run ended in the AFC Championship game against the Raiders, infamous “Red Right 88”, can this Browns team overcome what their ancestors couldn’t and make it to Las Vegas?
Make Playoffs: 87%
Win Division: 24%
First Round Bye: 6%
10. Steelers (-1)
Man, of course that Steelers Offense had to show its ugly mug again. With the game on the line, all Pittsburgh needed was a decent drive and a Field Goal to put away Cleveland. So, how did Pittsburgh respond? Incomplete. Incomplete. Incomplete. Punt. This is the issue I have with Pittsburgh: The play calling on Offense makes no sense. With less than 2 minutes on the board tied up, you have the choice to either force passes and stop the clock, or run the ball and play for overtime. Pittsburgh’s whole possession wasted 24 seconds. That gave Cleveland nearly a minute with 2 timeouts at their own 35. That’s more than enough time to get 50 yards. Steelers blew it. FIRE MATT CANADA.
Make Playoffs: 68%
Win Division: 14%
First Round Bye: 1%
Update: THEY DID IT! THEY FIRED MATT CANADA!
11. Vikings (+3)
While the Vikings lost a close one to Denver, I’ve got to give them some respect. They’ve turned their season around and are looking to be a good pick for a Wild Card spot. Even after having more yards, TDs, and a longer time of possession than the Broncos, it just wasn’t enough. Josh Dobbs seems to fit into Minnesota’s scheme awfully comfortably. Even with their 5 game winning streak snapped, they’ve put themselves in a comfortable position to make another playoff appearance. Let’s just hope it goes better than last year’s.
Make Playoffs: 80%
Win Division: 9%
First Round Bye: <1%
12. Seahawks (-1)
In a 2 week span where starting QBs are dropping like flies, Seattle became the newest victims, with Geno Smith leaving the game early with an Elbow injury. While Drew Lock wasn’t spectacular, he did enough. Who didn’t do enough, however, was Jason Myers. Seahawks fans may say “But Josh, it was a 55 yarder!” While they’re right, he’s also in a Dome. If an NFL Kicker can’t kick a 55 yarder in perfect conditions, folks may question why he’s in the NFL in the first place. While I am a spoiled Ravens fan (Tucker is the goat, you can’t argue), you have to make that kick. Seahawks lose a heartbreaker 17-16 to drop to 6-4.
Make Playoffs: 56%
Win Division: 5%
First Round Bye: <1%
13. Bills (0)
The Bills season so far has been on a tightrope. You ask anyone back in August, Buffalo was going to the Superbowl. Now, they’re lucky to make the playoffs. Currently at 6-5 after a 32-6 whipping of the Jets, they’re the 8th seed, just outside of a Wild Card spot. The Bills can’t seem to get out of their own way, whether it’s the run game stalling, Josh Allen turning the ball over (he threw another one Sunday, btw), or the Defense falling apart. Buffalo has the tools to make a deep run, but when can they get it together this year? Buffalo still has yet to face; Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas, and Miami. With them sitting at 6-5, it’s gonna take a helluva performance for them to make the postseason again.
Make Playoffs: 26%
Win Division: 10%
First Round Bye: <1%
14. Texans (+5)
While the game was closer than most Houstonians would’ve hoped, CJ Stroud and crew were able to hold off Arizona, 21-16. While Stroud more than doubled his interception numbers, throwing three today, he still looked great. 336 yards and 2 TDs isn’t easy, even against a terrible Cardinals Defense. While his stock for the MVP might’ve fallen a tad, he’s still the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. While we’re on the subject, Tank Dell should be in consideration. After catching 8 passes for 149 yards and a TD, He’s currently 2nd in receiving yards for all rookie receivers, trailing only Puka Nacua. Man, Houston looks set for the future.
Make Playoffs: 65%
Win Division: 32%
First Round Bye: 2%
15. Chargers (-5)
Good news and bad news. Good news: I get to bring back “Chargering” again! Bad news: The Chargers are “Chargering” again. After being considered a contender before the season began, the Chargers are 4-6. I hate to say it, but I knew it would happen. I had the Chargers missing the playoffs (I had the Jets making it instead, FML). After a 10 yard pass to Keenan Allen put Los Angeles ahead by 4 with 5:24 left in the game, they let Love and his band of misfits march down the field and take the lead with 2:33 left. A turnover on downs on their own 35 lead to the Packers sending the Chargers home with a 23-20 loss. Someone save Justin Herbert.
Make Playoffs: 12%
Win Division: 1%
First Round Bye: <1%
16. Buccaneers (0)
Tampa is currently fighting for their playoff lives in a mediocre NFC South. Sitting at 4-6, they’re currently 3rd in the division, behind 4-6 Atlanta and 5-5 New Orleans. Right now, every game is important for Tampa, and dropping a 27-14 loss to San Francisco isn’t doing them any favors. Although Baker Mayfield is having an up and down season, I truly don’t think they’d be here if not for him. The run game isn’t what it used to be, the O-Line is struggling on the field, and the Defense is old. I truly think this is the last time the Buccaneers can truly make a run at the postseason before undertaking a rebuild.
Make Playoffs: 29%
Win Division: 19%
First Round Bye: <1%
17. Colts (+1)
A nice little breather for Indianapolis, sitting at a 5-5 record. While they haven’t been impressive, they’re keeping their heads above water. With Gardner Minshew making a case to be a starter, likely elsewhere, the Colts aren’t looking too bad. Looking down the stretch, dates with the Bengals, Steelers and the finale against the Texans don’t look god awful, but is Indy ready for postseason football? With quality wins against Baltimore and Houston, they could sneak in and take a wildcard game, but I wouldn’t expect much more from them. Buccaneers come to Lucas Oil next week.
Make Playoffs: 19%
Win Division: 3%
First Round Bye: <1%
18. Jets (-1)
Just when things couldn’t get worse for New York, things got worse. A 32-6 thumping from Buffalo and a 4-6 record makes things tough for a playoff run, but with Mr. MILF getting benched, it basically ends the Jets season. Even if Aaron Rodgers comes back this season, it’s an uphill climb up an icy wall. My advice? Let Rodgers rest and look towards next season. With that young defense bearing fruit, they should have a real shot. My gut tells me Zach Wilson gets shipped off this off-season and the Jets take a QB in the 2nd round to develop under Aaron Rodgers. Hmm, let’s say….Quinn Ewers.
Make Playoffs: 2%
Win Division: 1%
First Round Bye: <1%
19. Bengals (-4)
Do you remember being a kid, watching the school alerts on the news early in the morning after a snowstorm, just hoping to see your school district pop up? Remember that sickening feeling when your school never showed up? I still know that feeling. As a kid in Springfield (I didn’t know the Simpsons), I hated seeing Springboro, just for it to jump to St Mary’s. That sickening feeling of knowing everyone around you got to play in the snow, while you had to walk to school in the cold snow. Well, that’s how Bengals fans felt watching Joe Burrow wince in pain on the sidelines Thursday Night. Just when the rest of the division is having fun, flirting with the postseason, while Cincinnati has to brave what’s ahead. While Jake Browning impressed folks (myself included), can he get the Bengals back into the postseason? It’s gonna be a long walk. In the Snow. Uphill. Both ways.
Make Playoffs: 21%
Win Division: 1%
First Round Bye: <1%
20. Broncos (+5)
Anyone who saw this Sunday Night matchup earlier this year thought they were in for a snore fest. Who knew it came down between possibly the two hottest teams in the League? With a big hand (or foot) from Wil Lutz, Denver pulled off their third upset in a row, knocking off the high flying Vikings 21-20. After starting the season 1-4, the Broncos are suddenly at .500 with a decent shot at playoff football. Not great, but decent. Hey, better than earlier this season, right? Denver keeps playing lights out, they can hang with anyone in the League.
Make Playoffs: 18%
Win Division: 1%
First Round Bye: <1%
21. Falcons (+1)
Atlanta is a maddening team. Last year, they showed they could run on nearly anyone, leading the league in rushing yards. While I thought adding Bijan Robinson made that Offense even more scary, they haven’t tapped into him much, choosing Tyler Allgeier as the lead back. Speaking of not using star players, Kyle Pitts continues to be ignored. When is Atlanta going to use their weapons? While sitting at 4-6, Atlanta still has a chance to win the division. Hey, what do you know? The division leading Saints come to town next week!
Make Playoffs: 31%
Win Division: 24%
First Round Bye: <1%
22. Titans (-2)
Tennessee has fallen from great heights recently. After being 12-5 in 2021, with the League’s leading rusher, and a promising future, they’re struggling to even get to .500. The demolition from the hands of former little brother Jacksonville should jumpstart a rebuild in Nashville. With Will Levis, it appears they have a piece to build around. In four starts, his TD:INT ratio is currently 6:2, which is great for anyone, let alone a rookie. While his favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins, probably won’t be around too much longer, I’m sure the Titans can grab him a great target in this year’s draft.
Make Playoffs: 1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
23. Raiders (0)
Las Vegas’ fight against a good Dolphins team was admirable, but they fell short. Of all teams in the NFL, the Raiders seem the most QB needy. While Aiden O’Connell has been decent, he looked awful Sunday posting a 271 yard, 1 TD, and 3 pick day, including a game ending pick to Jalen Ramsey. Standing at 5-6 currently, they aren’t a favorite to land a great QB, but options such as Michael Penix Jr. or Shedeur Sanders should be available. Vegas has to fix the QB situation soon, now that there will soon be a new shoe in town. Welcome to Las Vegas, Athletics?
Make Playoffs: 2%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
24. Commanders (-3)
Sam Howell and crew got their wakeup call. In possibly the biggest upset this week, The Commanders lose at home to the Giants. Up until the 4th quarter, the game was at least close, 14-12. After that, nearly all Giants. Sam Howell passed for 255 yards, 1 TD, and 3 picks. The last pick going for a Pick 6. While I thought Bienemy was cleaning up this Offense, they struggled mightily against a subpar Giants D. While Rome wasn’t built in a day, pillars for support have got to be seen. Riverboat Ron’s seat is growing ever so hotter.
Make Playoffs: 1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
25. Saints (-1)
While sitting atop the, yet again, disappointing NFC South, Nawlins has so many questions on the roster. Derek Carr, who’s had a good season in the Bayou, is listed as Questionable. While Jameis Winston nearly guided the Saints to a comeback against the Vikings last week, can he keep Nawlins rolling? Can Michael Thomas and Marshon Lattimore come back? How will the cap affect the team next season? Let’s just focus on next week, a trip to Atlanta.
Make Playoffs: 66%
Win Division: 56%
First Round Bye: <1%
26. Rams (+1)
Man, the Rams got lucky against the Seahawks. While they played well enough to pull ahead of the Seahawks late, that 55 yard kick would’ve effectively ended Los Angeles’ playoff hopes. While the Rams survive by the skin of their teeth, I don’t expect them to survive long. With games approaching against; Cleveland, Baltimore, and a finale against San Francisco, that’s 3 losses. A 4-6 record right now isn’t promising looking toward the future. Sorry Los Angeles. Nice job sweeping the Seahawks though!
Make Playoffs: 16%
Win Division: 1%
First Round Bye: <1%
27. Packers (-1)
Green Bay escapes with a victory over the mediocre Chargers. While this victory doesn’t exactly save their season, it does give some hope to Packers fans. After struggling for a good portion of the season, Jordan Love looked great; 322 yards and 2 TDs. Sadly, there’s always a big but (not like that, perverts) with the Packers. Was Love’s performance a result of him growing as a passer, or the result of the Chargers underwhelming defense? Whichever, Packers needed this win for pride and they got it.
Make Playoffs: 22%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
28. Bears (0)
I don’t know what Chicago’s doing anymore. After starting the season 0-6, they’ve won 3 of the last 5. Meanwhile, they looked to have their 4th win Sunday against the Lions. With 4 minutes in the 4th Quarter (4 seems to be a trending number here.), They had a 98.8% chance of victory.
That’s nearly a guaranteed victory. Detroit at that point had a 1.2% chance of victory, yet Chicago choked. The Beer has to flowing freely through the streets of Chi-town. With the Bears being bad, the White Sox and Cubs being mediocre, Blackhawks having the 1st overall pick, and Bulls being bad, can’t Chicago have anything?
Make Playoffs: 1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
29. Giants (+1)
Wow, that was unexpected. After starting rookie Tommy “Shine Box” Devito, he gets the big win to show he belongs. While not incredibly impressive, 246 yards and 3 TDs, he’s proven enough to New York. With his play and a name like that, he’ll be a folk hero in Queens in no time. While New York is still on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, it is nice to see some signs of life. Even if it does ruin the tank for, say, Marvin Harrison Jr or Drake Maye, it certainly helps the Boroughs.
Make Playoffs: <1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
30. Cardinals (-1)
Man, I’m starting to feel like a broken record with the Cardinals. Yet another loss. While the Panthers have more losses, they have more to discuss, including Bryce Young. Arizona is kinda just there. While Kyler Murray took a break from Modern Warfare 3 to play, he hasn’t changed the Cardinals fortunes yet. The return of Kyler makes the tank harder to win, but Arizona is still eyeing a high pick.
Make Playoffs: <1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
31. Patriots (0)
Man, New England needed a break to figure things out. With the season all but over for the Patriots, Owner Robert Kraft can start focusing on changes over the off-season. First off, will Bill Belichick, the franchise leader in wins, return to Foxborough next season? How about Mac Jones? What about disappointing pieces Mike Gesicki and Juju Smith-Schuster? I expect a lot of turnover in New England, but all players. Belichick is too big of a name to just let go, and I truly don’t believe it’s his fault. While the Patriots don’t really have a shot at the playoffs, there’s nothing wrong with winning for pride (or saving jobs). Giants are up next.
Make Playoffs: <1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
32. Panthers (0)
Panthers have officially clinched their 6th losing season in a row, the current longest in the NFL. What are the Panthers doing? Front Office made some big signings in the off-season to help out Bryce Young, but Carolina still continues to struggle. Without their first round pick this off-season, it’s just a waste of a season in Charlotte. How much longer can the fans take it? With David Tepper screwing over the fans and the roster, do we have another Dan Snyder situation? Lord, I hope not for Panthers fans.
Make Playoffs: <1%
Win Division: <1%
First Round Bye: <1%
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