If you’ve tuned into our Fantasy Realm podcast, then you know, I love the underdogs. Different from one of my co-hosts, Allan, who likes to talk about whoever is going against the weakest surface matchup or picking Ja’Marr Chase as a must-start. Handicappers and fantasy football experts stake their reputation on being right and showing a win percentage. It shouldn’t be about being right, it should be about being profitable and just being right, doesn’t always equate to being profitable. Winning at 80% on -110 favorites is the same thing as winning at 40% on +282 dogs.
So, if you wake up this weekend feeling dangerous, here are five, some may say bold, matchups to target. Always remember, fortune favors the bold.
Matthew Stafford | Cooper Kupp | Puka Nacau vs. Arizona Cardinals
After 15 years in the NFL, one thing is still certain. Matthew Stafford may be the most underrated QB in the last 20 years. He’s also been one of the most consistent QBs in the game. While in a Rams uniform 31 times, he’s scored 15+ points in 20 of them. He’s scored below 10pts two times. And if we remove the numbers from last years injury shortened season, he’s scored 15+ points in 18 of 22 games. It is rare for Stafford to lay a complete turd for owners. While his risk is minimal, his ceiling is also limited, only scoring 25+ points in 4 out of 31 games. That said, for the first time in his career, he has two weapons whose ceilings have fantasy owners salivating. After last week, the debate on Cooper Kupp’s effect on Puka Nacau can be put to rest. Stafford can support the both of them and it only enhances the LA offense. Combine all of this with what the matchup data shows and Stafford could be in for a career game:
- Rams rank top-10 in plays/60min, pace and efficiency
- Arizona has been competitive – the ceiling for # of plays in this could be the highest on the slate
- Stafford is currently QB15 in scoring but his metrics say he should be higher
- 6th in passing grade
- 1st in big-time throw rate
- 4th in passing yards
- Kupp’s return has also shifted red-zone tendencies (66.7% pass in Week 5) from the run
- Arizona’s Defense
- 6th most fantasy points via passing
- 6th highest yards per attempt
- 7th highest passer rating
- 4th highest adjusted completion rate
Now for the obvious. If Stafford goes, Kupp and Puka are the benefactors. In 27 games with Stafford, Kupp has finished at or above WR12 an insane 22 times. Puka has finished at or above WR15 4 out of 5 games this season. If this game plays to its ceilings, we could be looking at Stafford, Kupp and Puka being in the top-5 fantasy scorers in their respective positions. Stacking them could have you counting bills.
Lamar Jackson | Zay Flowers vs. Tennessee Titans
Unlike Stafford, Lamar Jackson’s scoring volatility and injuries has been an issue the past 3 years causing frustrations with fantasy owners all over. This hasn’t been entirely on Jackson – there has always been a lack of receiving in Baltimore. Maybe for the first time in his career, with the exception of Tight End Mark Andrews, he has a Wide Receiver of note, in Zay Flowers. With both Flowers and Andrews, Jackson has posted the 2nd highest ceiling behind Josh Allen. If you’re a Jackson owner, you will need to take the floors with ceilings as he is the only QB since 2021 to post three 40+ point games. Based on the matchup data, this could be a ceiling week for Jackson and Flowers:
- Despite the drops, Jackson is having a great year statistically
- 2nd in passing grade
- 13th in yards/attempt
- 4th in big time throw rate
- 10th in fantasy points per dropback
- Flower’s air yards have increased in consecutive weeks
- Flower’s has eaten into Andrews target share significantly
- Tennessee CB’s matching up with Flowers – 70% of routes against:
- Sean Murphy-Bunting: 69.6% catch rate/102.4 passer rating
- Kristian Fulton: 77.8% catch rate/137.3 passer rating
- Tennessee Defense
- 4th highest yards/attempt
- 5th highest passer rating to Qbs
- 14th highest completion % over expected to deep balls
If Baltimore goes to the deep ball, Flowers is the benefactor, as he leads the Ravens with 8 deep targets. Flower’s would of cracked the top-5 WR threshold last week if he didn’t trip on a 50+ yard TD pass. If they can secure the ball this week against a bad Tennessee pass defense, both Jackson and Flowers could make a lot of noise.
Trevor Lawrence | Calvin Ridley | Christian Kirk vs. Indianapolis Colts
While his sample size is smaller, Trevor Lawrence has shown Stafford like consistency, averaging 12.7pts/gm in his rookie campaign, 17.9pts/gm in 2022 and 15.1pts/gm through Week 5 in 2023. His regression in scoring this year after seeing improvement from his rookie season in 2022, may cause you to sleep on him. Lawrence gives you Stafford-like consistency with minimal risk but unlike Stafford, he has shown that he will have those ceiling games more often. He’s yet to cross the 20 point threshold in 2023 but coming off a big win against Buffalo and coming in to a plus matchup this week, it could be a ceiling game for Lawrence.
- Pace and Efficiency metrics for both teams align
- Jacksonville ranks 3rd in snaps/60min with 69.6
- Indy ranks 1st in neutral pace that only improves with Gardner Minshew at QB
- Lawrence Metrics
- 5th best passing grade
- 5th best adjusted completion rate
- 5th best highly accurate throw rate
- 8th best completion % over expected
- Colts Defense
- 10th most fantasy pts/gm
- 8th most yards/attempt
- 4th most passing yards/gm to QB
- 13th highest PPR points/target to outside WR
I am targeting this stack for my DFS lineups. Pace and efficiency metrics do not lie – there will be a lot of plays and a lot of passing in this game increasing ceilings. In Week 1 when these two teams met, Lawrence/Ridley/Zay Jones combined for 46.3pts. There’s two variables that have changed, making this favorable – Gardner Minshew taking the offense and Zay Jones being ruled out. For DFS, you could also look to replace Kirk with Travis Etienne Jr, but that also comes with an $1,100 increase in salary.
Gardner Minshew | Michael Pittman | Josh Downs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
With all of the injury news this week, Anthony Richardson’s injury may have flown under the radar a bit. Gardner Minshew and the Mustache Mafia will take the keys to the offense and doesn’t quite register in the fantasy conversation like Richardson. His ceiling is significantly lower. He’s been highly efficient when playing this year completing nearly 70% of his passes for 553yds, 2TDs and 0 INT. This is the boldest of the stacks but Jacksonville ranks in the lower 3rd in fantasy points/gm vs QB & WR’s. They also play zone coverage 78.6% – Pittman’s target share jumps to 29.4% in zone (from 26.9%) and his first-read share jumps significantly from 34.2% to 40.5%. Jacksonville has also allowed fifth-most PPR points per target to outside WR. Downs is coming off his best week in his rookie campaign. His snap counts and targets have remained steady and its a matter of time before he breaks out. This could be the week with a plus matchup in Tre Herndon (84.2% catch rate/147.4 passer rating) and Jacksonville ranking sixth highest passer rating to slot receivers.
Justin Fields | DJ Moore vs. Minnesota Vikings
I do expect Justin Fields and DJ Moore’s stock to fall in the coming weeks, but they face a plus matchup against Minnesota in Week 6. Recent injury news regarding Justin Jefferson has owners speculating on who will fill his shoes for the Vikings, Jordan Addison or KJ Osborn, taking focus off the opposite side of the ball. A divisional game between two struggling teams in different places. Minnesota trade rumors have been swirling after their 1-4 start and Chicago is coming off a 20pt road win in Washington. Fields and Moore have been on fire the past two weeks and the matchup data says its worth it to keep riding it through Week 6.
- Fields’ hot hand past two weeks
- 3rd in yards/attempt
- 3rd in passer rating
- 10th in adjusted completion rate
- 8th in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate
- Vikings Defense
- Given up 8th most fantasy pts to QB
- 3rd highest passer rating
- 2nd highest adjusted completion rate
- Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL
- Fields ranks 8th in yards/attempt vs Blitz
- 11th best passer rating vs Blitz
I don’t know if I can handle another week of Fields hype, but there’s no denying his ceiling is there. Above we discussed Lamar Jackson being the only QB to have three 40pt games since 2021 – Fields is the only one behind him with 2. Offensive weapons for the Bears are limited, so if Fields pops off, so does Moore. Over the past 4 weeks, Moore has outscored Tyreek Hill each week and a by an overall total of 80.6 to 63. For DFS players, FanDuel has Hill at $9800 and Moore at $8000. Seeing that the Vikings do not have a corner that can contain Moore, there’s huge value at his price point.
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