In the words of Gordon Gekko, “I don’t throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it is ever fought.”
As we enter Week 6, injuries plague fantasy owners. Recent news of Justin Jefferson, James Conner and potentially De’Von Achane finding themselves on the Injured Reserve list is causing mass panic across the fantasy landscape. As we look to fill the gaps caused by the injury bug, we must not forget, speculation, is the mother of all evil and the most valuable commodity we know of is information.
QB Stock on the Rise – Justin Fields, Bears
At the conclusion of Week 3, Justin Fields was sitting at QB18 and the pre-season MVP Buzz coming from Chicago was silenced. Weeks 4 & 5 have been a different story and all of a sudden the Windy City is buzzing again. Fields has since moved 15 spots and taken the QB3 spot, amassing 61.9pts the last 2 weeks, after only putting up 43.9pts in weeks 1-3. How should Fields owners handle their position?
Position: Hold and sell by Week 9 – We can’t ignore that Fields was all but shut down by Green Bay (#10 def vs QB), Tampa Bay (#13 def vs QB) and Kansas City (#9 def vs QB) and produced against Denver (#30 def vs QB) and Washington (#29 def vs QB). His production over the past two weeks comes against 2 defenses in the bottom 4 defenses against QB’s for fantasy points allowed, so we can hold off on crowning him the 2023 MVP. His next 3 matchups come against teams that rank in the bottom half in points allowed to QBs: Minnesota (#24), Oakland (#21) and the Los Angelas Chargers (#31). The second half of the Bears schedule is not as forgiving and 5 of the remaining 9 games will come against top 12 defenses vs. QB. Fields will continue to be a matchup dependent play, whose ceiling will be dependent on opponent, just as he was in the 2022 season.
Falling QB Stock – Jordan Love, Green Bay
Contrary to NFC Rival, Justin Fields, Jordan Love was riding high through Week 4, landing as high as QB2 and as low as QB4 during that stretch. His 8pt performance on Monday Night Football vs Oakland now drops him out of the Top 10 to QB12. That, combined with the Packers 2-3 record has owners stuck with Adam Sandler singing “Love Stinks” on repeat in their head. But is it time to panic just yet?
Position: Hold or Buy – Jordan Love is a QB1 and will finish in the Top 8 Fantasy QB’s for 2023. Unlike Fields, the matchup hasn’t mattered for him. Yes, in Week 1 he went up against the Bears (#30 def vs QB) scoring 23pts but he also came out against the Saints (#6 def vs QB) and put up 25.3pts. He is the latest product of a bad week. While a losing record holds no real fantasy impact, it is still considered a lack of success amongst fantasy owners for some reason. Don’t believe me? Ask Kirk Thuggin’s owners. Love is averaging 19.2pts/gm through Week 5. The Packers schedule the remainder of the year is worthy of review, as outside of Kansas City, they do not face another top 10 defense vs QB’s in their remaining 12 games. More importantly, they finish against the Vikings and Bears during Championship Weeks for many fantasy owners.
RB Stock on the Rise – Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
Since returning from suspension, Saints RB Alvin Kamara hasn’t skipped a beat in terms of fantasy relevancy. While its tough to place Kamara after missing 4 weeks, he sits at RB7 in pts/game (20.1) after just two games. What’s even more impressive: of his 40.2 pts this year, 34.2 of them are non-TD points. This is due in large part to his 16 receptions out of the backfield, which 13 of them came in his 2023 debut. Will Kamara sustain this production in 2023?
Position: Sell Now – Kamara is averaging 24.5 touches/gm since returning, which isn’t shocking on the surface considering the absence of Jamaal Williams. But if we dig deeper, we can see this leads all players in touches/game this year. On top of that, Kamara has only averaged 18 touches/game since he entered the league in 2017. His career high was in 2021, when he averaged 22 touches/game. With Williams returning soon and Kendre Miller already seeing a significant snap share of around 35% when healthy, this only means less opportunities for Kamara.
Falling RB Stock – Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
Bijan met the hype coming into his 2023 rookie season, opening with 40+ pts through Week 2 and sitting comfortably at RB3 overall. In weeks 3-5, he’s only averaged 13.5pts/gm and fallen to RB7 causing some concern amongst fantasy owners. This may not seem like a significant drop, but for owners who took Bijan in the first round, they expect more than a mediocre season. Is it time to panic for those owners?
Position: Hold or Buy – There is no reason to panic on Bijan. Two of the last 3 matchups have come against Detroit (#2 vs RB) and Jacksonville (#7 vs RB). Of 12 remaining games, only 3 opponents are top 10 defenses vs. fantasy RB. Bijan will finish as a Top 10 RB this year and potential Top 5.
WR Stock on the Rise – DJ Moore, Chicago
With Justin Fields recent rise in the QB rankings, DJ Moore has been on receiving end and like Fields, has jumped up the rankings. After Week 3, Moore was sitting at WR39 on the year, jumped to WR13 after Week 4 and a juggernaut 41pt performance in Week 5 has now pushed him all the way up to WR2. Will he continue this success?
Position: Sell Now – As an owner, it’s hard not to be excited about a later round draft pick or even waiver wire player blowing up your weekly scores. However, you cannot let the recent success cloud your judgement allowing you to think DJ Moore is going to make you a contender. Fields and Moore have been benefactors of back-to-back plus matchups against poor pass defenses. And there’s one variable that leads to Moore’s success, Justin Fields. Moore is not a QB or matchup proof WR and he is sure to fall in the coming weeks. Improve your position and sell high to get a more consistent player in your redraft lineup or in dynasty leagues to improve draft capital or youth.
Falling WR Stock – Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
After over performing in Weeks 2 & 3, Allen’s mediocre performance in Week 4 and Week 5 Bye may cause him to be falling off fantasy radars as he’s fallen to WR6 on the year. His usage stats, which ultimately lead to fantasy points, are there, playing in over 75% of snaps every week and being targeted 44 times in 4 weeks. The loss of Mike Williams surely boosts Allen’s targets as the next closest WR for the Chargers for targets is Joshua Palmer with 21. What is Allen’s outlook for the year?
Position: Hold or Buy Now – Allen is consistently undervalued in fantasy WR discussions. Since 2017, he is one of the most consistent WR in the game, finishing within the top 20 for fantasy production. And he sits in an offense with one of the games premier gunslingers. Additionally, since 2017, in 12 games without Mike Williams, he’s at 69 receptions (114 targets) for 820 yards and 5 TD’s, which equates to 15 fantasy points/gm. At minimum, he’s going to be a TD candidate every week as one of Justin Herbert’s favorite red zone targets.
TE Stock on the Rise – Mark Andrews, Baltimore
Between being absent in Week 1 and the introduction of Zay Flowers to the Baltimore offense, Andrews was off to a slow start this season. The TE position as a whole has been disappointing for many fantasy owners who reached to get a pre-season Top 5 TE in drafts. Outside of a 20pt performance in Week 4, Andrews has just been flat, however finds himself leading the league in average fantasy points/game with Travis Kelce at 10.1pts because of that big Week 4 performance and the TE3 overall. Can Andrews keep his streak alive and finish the year as a top 5 TE?
Position: Sell Now – It’s hard to ignore the fact that Andrews has been one of the most consistent performers at the TE position, finishing Top 5 overall every year since 2019 but the recent addition of rookie Zay Flowers has given Baltimore a viable WR that is eating away at Andrews target share both in and out of the red zone. This may be the year he’s pushed out of the Top 5, with the emergence of rookie Sam LaPorta, a similar situation in Chicago for Cole Kmet and a big injury in Minnesota that will boost TJ Hockenson. After finishing as TE1 in 2021, Andrews started off the 2022 campaign right where he left of averaging 12.6pts/gm through Week 6, but fell off hard only averaging 4.6pts/gm in 9 games from Week 7 on. That was without competing for targets with Zay Flowers and it looks like this trend is continuing in 2023. It may be time to cash in on Andrews past success.
Falling TE Stock – Jake Ferguson, Dallas
A slow fantasy start for the entire position has had Jake Ferguson flirting with the top 10 at the TE spot. In addition, his 5.6 targets/game has owners thinking about him as a potential streamer. But in Week 5, he saw only 3 targets and put up 2.8 fantasy points. Is Jake Ferguson a pretender?
Position: Ignore – It’s tough for me to get excited by a player who has yet to score 8 fantasy points just because he’s getting targets. It’s also tough for me to be excited about an offensive player for the Dallas Cowboys. Ferguson is comparable to Tyler Conklin and I don’t hear anyone rushing out to get Conklin. Like Conklin, Ferguson is super dependent on how his QB decides to play on any given day and Dak Prescott is the reason I’m out. While his targets may be on the high side, he is still a 4th or 5th option in the Dallas offense behind Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. He is targeted in the red zone, as hes seen 11 targets through Week 5, however only 1 has resulted in reaching pay dirt. He may be a good look in non-PPR leagues due to that stat, but in PPR leagues, there are far better streaming options available that are on the low side of being rostered, like: Logan Thomas (23.9% rostered), Dalton Schultz (57.5% rostered), Jonnu Smith (11.4% rostered), Zach Ertz (64.4% rostered) and Tyler Conklin (17.5% rostered). Don’t waste a roster spot on Jake Ferguson.
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