Week 1: Reality or Mirage?

Week 1 has come and gone, but not without raising some questions. Can we expect these performances to repeat or are they just a mirage?

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill will be dominant.

Reality. Tua erupted for 466 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. While Tyreek torched the Chargers defense for 11 catches, 215 yards, and 2 TDs! After 14 games together Hill is averaging 115.9 yards per game. While those numbers are almost certainly to drop it does put them above such duos as Montana/Rice (87.1 per game), Manning/Harrison (81.5 per game), and Roethlisberger/Brown (89.7 per game). Tuas pin point accuracy and Hills freakish speed are a perfect match for each other. Lets all hope the Dolphins OL can keep Tua healthy this season because if they do, we all are in for quite a show.

Brandon Aiyuk is the wide receiver one in SF

Reality. Aiyuk picked up right where he left off last season catching 8 passes for 129 yards with 2 TDs. Aiyuk also had a very impressive block that sprung Christian McCaffery loose on a 65 yard TD. Aiyuk was criminally under valued this offseason as the WR26 while his teammate Deebo Samuel was WR17. It is hard trading for a WR after a huge week, but I do not see Aiyuks price tag getting any smaller than is today.

Desmond Ridder Can’t support fantasy relevant pass catchers

Reality. The definition of a game manager, Ridder is a better NFL QB than a fantasy QB. Falcons have a dominant run game that features rookie stud Bijan Robinson, second year running back Tyson Allgeier, and the newly labeled Joker Cordarrelle Patterson. Outside of the trio of runners Atlanta has two very promising young pass catchers with WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. Pitts was the leading pass catcher for Atlanta catching two of his three targets for a measly 44 yards while London failed to reel in his only target. If I am an owner of London I am holding him until he has a decent game and then immediately looking to take advantage weeks production to get a more consistent asset. As far as Pitts, I am holding out hope that he can give you positional advantage at the TE spot in your line up.

Kenneth Gainwell is the RB to own in Philly

Mirage. This was one of the biggest surprises of week 1 for me. After being acquired from Detroit during the draft we all heard how much D’Andre Swift was going play behind the dominant Philly OL. Swift largely failed to meet expectations in week 1, hardly any fault of his own after only getting two touches all game. Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell rushed 14 times for 54 yards while catching 4 passes for 20 yards. I do not buy that Gainwell well continue to out touch Swift, but I am avoiding this backfield until I see it. Reach out to your leagues Swifts owner. See if you can get him for cheap.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense are in trouble

Mirage. Yuck! What a bad performance from Burrow and the Bengals. We should give some credit to the Browns defense, but also point out the nasty weather paired with the likeness that Burrow is not fully recovered from the calf injury that cut his preseason short. Bengals have a tough match up against Baltimore in week 2, but I expect Burrow is recover from this just fine and get back to fantasy stud the powers this high octane offense. If Burrow and company struggle again in week 2 I would reach out to all Burrow owners and see if I can catch them panicking.

Zay Flowers is Baltimores WR1

Reality. Zay was mentioned as one my favorite sleepers coming into this season and week 1 showed us all why. Dominating the target share Zay earned 10 targets while catching 9 of them and turning those into 78 yards. Fellow teammates OBJ and Bateman only saw 3 targets each. Lamar Jackson trusts the rookie and the coaching staff clearly wants him to be involed. 6 of his 10 targets came on screen, RPOs, or pop passes. The absence of Mark Andrews is likely to contribute to some of Flowers forced targets, but I do not see Bateman or OBJ taking away significant looks for him. I am extremely comfortable with Zay as my WR3 with upside.